The Future of AVAX: Avalanche Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Price Prediction for 2024

Introduction

Hello and welcome to another update on AVAX.

Today saw significant sell-offs in the crypto market, and we're diligently monitoring whether AVAX may hit the $ 18.80 level. Unfortunately, there is no convincing bottom structure forming from the July 5th low. It's crucial to recognize the importance of observing five-wave movements to the upside.

Currently, only a handful of coins have demonstrated these five waves from the July 5th low, Bitcoin being one and Jupiter another. Most altcoins, including LINK, DOT, and AVAX, have only rallied in three waves. At this point, AVAX seems to be attempting to form another low.

Analyzing the Current Situation

From the July 5th low, AVAX does not show a convincing reversal. As mentioned in the last update, a three-wave uptrend isn't enough to confirm a low until a five-wave pattern is established. Essentially, another upward movement forming five waves is necessary to genuinely confirm we are out of the bearish phase.

In the latest observed movement, breaking above the last high at $ 29.50 could shift the probability towards a bullish trend. While this wouldn't mean the entire downside is invalidated, it signifies that an important resistance level has been broken, warranting closer monitoring.

Current Projections

I continue to expect one more low. Overnight, the price tested the 78.6% retracement from the July 5th rally. To shift to a more bullish scenario, the price needs to break above $ 29.60. Until then, I anticipate the price to trend lower towards $ 18.80 to complete its yellow wave pattern.

Key Indicators to Watch

Price Break at $ 29.60: To confirm the bullish white count scenario, this price point must be breached.
Five-wave Pattern: Tracking a complete five-wave structure will be pivotal.
1880 Critical Target: This is where the yellow wave pattern is expected to establish a more reliable structure.

Risk and Reward Considerations

Traders interested in the long trade of the white count have favorable reward-to-risk ratios. Yet, the overall outlook remains cautious as the market continues to exhibit bearish signs. Presently, catching the falling knife by investing prematurely without further confirmation could be risky.

Conclusion

It's wise to wait for more upside momentum or a first minor one-two setup to occur on smaller timeframes before making any decisive moves. Even though the situation remains tenuous and somewhat bearish, diligent tracking and intelligent positioning could pivot to gains if market conditions start favoring the white count trajectory.

Keywords

AVAX
Crypto Market
Sell-Offs
July 5th Low
Five-wave Movement
Elliott Wave Analysis
Resistant Level
78.6% Retracement
Reward-to-Risk Ratio
Upside Momentum

FAQ

Q1: What is the current trend for AVAX? A1: AVAX is currently facing significant sell-offs. Any potential bullish reversal requires a confirmed five-wave movement from the July 5th low.

Q2: What price point should traders monitor for an upside confirmation? A2: Traders should keep an eye on the $ 29.60 level. Breaking this resistance would indicate a potential bullish trend.

Q3: Is there a critical target for AVAX? A3: Yes, the $ 18.80 level is crucial, as it's where the yellow wave pattern could form a more reliable structure.

Q4: What do current risk and reward models suggest for trading AVAX? A4: While the reward-to-risk ratios are favorable for the white count, the broader market sentiment remains bearish. Caution is advised.

Q5: What is the significance of the five-wave pattern? A5: A five-wave pattern is vital in Elliott Wave analysis to confirm a bullish reversal. Without this confirmation, any upward movements may not be sustained.