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The Future of AVAX: Avalanche Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Price Prediction for 2024

Introduction

Hello and welcome to another update video about AVAX. We have something to talk about because there has been some movement. The price got rejected in the upside Fibonacci (FIB) area at $ 33. This is the 1.1236 extension of the initial potential one-two setup, and that's a problem we need to discuss in this article.

The Bigger Picture

In the bigger picture, we have a bullish scenario, which will be invalidated below $ 870 or $ 865. This is the October low of last year. Do I expect it to be tested? Absolutely not. I don't expect this level to be tested in this bull market. However, it's important to highlight the invalidation point. The formal invalidation point for the bullish one-two setup is already below $ 13.40. Any break below this critical 78.6% retracement level would rather indicate that we've already topped, leading to new bear market lows. Below the 78.6% retracement, a wave two pullback becomes less likely. Most wave twos would finish before breaking this level at $ 13.40.

Current Expectations

Currently, the expectations are for a bullish outcome and a rally in a third wave, which would break above the March highs of $ 66.

Short-term Analysis and Confirmation

In the shorter time frame, the big question is: have we bottomed already, or is there one more low coming? For a first confirmation that we've bottomed and reduced the risk of one more low, we need a first five-wave pattern. This five-wave pattern is indicated by the white count of Wave 1, Wave 2, Wave 3, Wave 4, and Wave 5.

To watch for a four-five pattern makes sense as long as we're holding $ 27.44. Below this level, the probabilities for a bullish outcome will reduce for a five-wave pattern. It's already problematic because the third wave, despite appearing dramatic, only reached the 123.6% extension level, which is the minimum ideal target. Anything below this makes me question the white count that we've bottomed already. Therefore, a break below $ 27.44 will suggest that the yellow count is in control, and we might see one more low to $ 18.80.

The Role of Fibonacci Levels

The $ 18.80 level was the ideal target in this correction because it is not only the golden ratio level (the 61.8% retracement) but also the 100% extension on the way down. We missed this level when we dipped into the trading area support zone, but the market still reacted to the 50% FIB level. As long as we're turning around before breaking below $ 13.40, it's fine. However, in an ideal Elliott Wave world, we would have seen the price get to $ 18.80.

Future Projections

Overall, we need to hold $ 27.44 in the short term to follow the white count. One more high should send us at least to $ 34, and ideally to $ 36. However, caution is advised because the third wave was weak. Chances are this was only a B-wave top in the yellow count, and we might come down once more in Wave C of Y to test $ 18.80. If this happens, an attempt to rally again from there can be expected.

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Keywords

  • AVAX
  • Fibonacci levels
  • Elliott Wave
  • Bullish scenario
  • Bear market lows
  • Critical retracement
  • Wave pattern
  • Price projection

FAQs

What is the current bullish scenario for AVAX?

The current bullish scenario will be invalidated below $ 870 or $ 865, which is the October low of last year. Above this level, expectations are for a bullish outcome and a rally in a third wave, potentially breaking above $ 66.

What is the critical level for a potential trend reversal?

The formal invalidation point for the bullish one-two setup is below $ 13.40. Any break below this critical 78.6% retracement would suggest new bear market lows.

What are the short-term levels to watch?

In the short term, $ 27.44 is a critical level to hold. A break below this level will reduce the probabilities for a bullish outcome, suggesting a potential move down to $ 18.80.

Why are Fibonacci levels important in this analysis?

Fibonacci levels help determine potential support and resistance areas. The $ 18.80 level is significant because it represents the golden ratio (61.8% retracement) and the 100% extension on the way down.

What should we expect if AVAX breaks below $ 27.44?

If AVAX breaks below $ 27.44, it suggests that the yellow count is in control, and we might see one more low to $ 18.80. From there, an attempt to rally again is expected.

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