Supply Chain Talk: Data-Driven Forecasts, 3D Printing, and NRF's Big Shift

Introduction

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Hey supply chain enthusiasts, wherever you are in the world! This is Sarah Barn Humphrey with you today. Are you ready? Let’s talk supply chain!

Hello everyone and welcome to Thoughts and Coffee! Happy Tuesday! My name is Sarah Barn Humphrey, founder and host of Let's Talk Supply Chain, the Blended Podcast, and the Blended Pledge. We’ve got a really exciting show for you today. Jeff from Manhattan Associates is joining me, and we’ll be discussing forecast accuracy, the fascinating world of 3D printing in space, and a new term I recently learned. Plus, we’ll dive into the latest from the NRF.

First and foremost, if you’re in the audience, I’d love to hear from you! Please share in the comments where you’re tuning in from. And feel free to drop any questions you might have during the show.

Before we dive deeper, let’s hear a word from our show sponsors. Are you ready to find your community? If you’re struggling to connect with like-minded supply chain professionals, look no further than the Secret Society of Supply Chain. They offer memberships with incredible benefits, networking events, and more. Check it out and sign up today!

Latest Updates

Now, moving on to our updates! We have a brand-new episode available featuring TSG Fleet, who discussed their operations on the West Coast, touching on maintenance and much more! If you missed it, tune in to episode 431 to learn how they’re making an impact in the industry.

Mark your calendars! On Halloween, October 31st at 1 PM Eastern, I’ll be speaking with Miriam from SDI about conquering inflation - a key concern for purchasing departments. This session will provide valuable insights to help you and your teams move forward confidently.

Next, we’ll have Relax Talks on November 13th at 9 AM Eastern, which happens to be my birthday! While I celebrate in Atlanta, Rela will discuss demand sensing - a key to supply chain excellence.

If you’ve been following us on the Let's Talk Supply Chain social media, you’ve noticed some exciting insights we’re sharing from various industries about supply chain disruptions and challenges they face. This week, we released insights from the Canadian promo industry that reflect on these issues.

Lastly, we’ve partnered with CPKC, and we can’t wait to share more great content from our time there. If you aren’t following us on LinkedIn and Instagram, make sure to do so to stay updated!

I’ll also be attending the NMFTA conference from October 27th-29th. If you see me there, don’t hesitate to come and say hi! In mid-November, I'll be reporting live from the Women in Supply Chain Forum in Atlanta, followed by my participation in the Manifest event in February.

Guest Introduction

Now, it’s time to bring our guest to the spotlight. Hello, Jeff!

Good to see you, Sarah!

Great to have you with us! For those who don't know you, could you introduce yourself and share what you do?

Absolutely! I lead the science group within the R&D organization at Manhattan Associates. We focus on mathematical modeling, optimization, operations research, data science, and AI/ML to enhance our product offerings.

That’s fantastic! By the way, you're going to be on a podcast soon where we’ll dig deeper into these topics, so stay tuned for that.

Now, let’s jump into our poll results. We asked, "Which source of external data do you think will be most empowering for your supply chain planning success?" We received about 70 votes, with 59% selecting econometric data, while weather and social media consumer opinion tied at 14%. Interestingly, 12% clicked "other," yet didn’t provide details in the comments!

Was this surprising to you, Jeff?

Not at all! I expected these results. Econometric indicators provide valuable macroeconomic insights that often lead the way for forecasting in various contexts.

That’s important to consider.

Market Insights

Moving on to the market update, what trends or areas should supply chain professionals focus on as we approach 2024?

Generative AI is a significant focus area for the coming year. Many organizations are still navigating how to effectively leverage it, but advancements in infrastructure will make it more reliable and impactful. Additionally, advanced analytics and automation will continue to enhance data-driven decision-making within supply chains.

That sounds promising! It’s crucial for companies to consider these technologies or risk falling behind.

Article Discussions

Now, let’s dive into our first article: an ultimate guide from Manhattan Associates on forecast accuracy.

One key aspect discussed is the concept of bias, which traditionally applies to diversity and inclusion discussions, but in forecasting, it can also refer to the tendency of models to consistently over or under predict outcomes based on misleading data.

What should readers expect to learn from this guide?

The article offers demand forecasting principles, emphasizing the importance of clean data alongside robust methods. Measuring and benchmarking your forecasts is essential for ensuring continuous improvement and understanding the business's impact.

I love that perspective!

3D Printing in Space

Next, we discussed an article about 3D printing metal parts in space, introducing the new term "in-orbit manufacturing." What were your thoughts on this development?

It's fascinating! The complexities of 3D printing in a microgravity environment are immense. The methods used on Earth need to be adapted for space, and the challenges presented by the absence of gravity will drive innovation in material science and manufacturing.

This will surely reshape our approach to logistics and manufacturing on a global level!

NRF's Big Shift

Finally, let’s touch on the NRF's decision to not publish their annual shrink report this year. Instead, they will focus specifically on retail theft and violence. Jeff, could you explain what “shrink” means in this context?

Shrinkage refers to inventory loss when actual stock is less than the expected amount due to factors like theft, errors, or inaccuracies. The NRF aims to address the rising trends in external theft and employee theft, which are becoming increasingly violent.

This shift in focus is crucial as theft poses a significant challenge to retailers today.

Thank you so much for your insights today, Jeff! And thank you to our audience for tuning in. We appreciate your engagement and look forward to seeing you next week!

Keyword

• Supply Chain
• Forecast Accuracy
• 3D Printing
• In-orbit Manufacturing
• Econometric Data
• NRF
• Retail Theft
• Shrinkage
• Advanced Analytics
• Generative AI

FAQ

Q: What is forecast accuracy?
A: Forecast accuracy measures the accuracy of demand predictions against actual demand, driven by reliable data models and practices.

Q: What does 'shrink' refer to in retail?
A: Shrinkage is the loss of inventory due to theft, errors, and inaccuracies, leading to a discrepancy between actual and recorded stock.

Q: Why is bias important in data-driven forecasting?
A: Bias can lead to inaccuracies in predictions if the underlying data is misleading, affecting the overall reliability of the forecasting models.

Q: What is in-orbit manufacturing?
A: In-orbit manufacturing refers to the production of parts and products in space, utilizing techniques like 3D printing which adapt to unique environmental challenges.

Q: What trends should supply chain professionals watch for in 2024?
A: Professionals should focus on generative AI, advanced analytics, and intelligent automation to enhance their data-driven decision-making processes.