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Session I of 39th ASEAN Roundtable: Who Moved ASEAN’s Cheese

Introduction

Introduction

A very good morning to everyone who has taken the time to join us at the 39th ASEAN Roundtable. This session, cheekily titled "Who Moved ASEAN’s Cheese," although playful, seeks to address the serious and rapid changes in Southeast Asia's geopolitical landscape. We will explore the challenges ASEAN faces and how the organization can adapt to these turbulent times.

Since adopting its ASEAN Charter in 2007 and establishing ASEAN Communities, the ambition has been to create a prosperous, integrated region. The launch of the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 was intended to be a roadmap to achieving this goal. However, numerous challenges have arisen in recent years, including the US-China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and various conflicts that threaten ASEAN's stability.

Current Challenges

As we reflect on ASEAN’s 50th year, it is evident that the political and economic landscapes have evolved dramatically. The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to long-term health and economic consequences. The region is currently navigating a tense geopolitical atmosphere characterized by frequent breaking news events that can alter the stability of the environment.

Key Issues Discussed by the Panelists

  1. Demographic Shift: Ambassador Barry Desker emphasized the changing demographic landscape in ASEAN. With around 60% of the population under 35, ASEAN’s youthful demographics have fostered economic resilience. However, a gradual shift toward an aging population can pose unfamiliar challenges concerning healthcare and social security systems.

  2. Digital Economy and Sustainability: The digital economy, propelled by technological advancements and increased internet usage during the pandemic, is expected to exceed a trillion dollars by 2030. The panel highlighted the importance of aligning economic growth with sustainability initiatives, especially in renewable energy.

  3. Trade and Investment Outlook: ASEAN remains a key player in global trade, accounting for a significant percentage of global exports. The region must adapt to shifting economic power dynamics, particularly concerning the US and China.

  4. Multilateralism and Regional Relations: Dr. Mari Pangestu stressed the importance of constructive incrementalism in navigating the complex geopolitical landscape. It is crucial for ASEAN to reinforce its regional integration efforts while keeping its rights and interests safeguarded.

  5. Community Identity: The speakers discussed the significance of a sense of community in ASEAN. They underscored the need for ASEAN countries to foster cooperation, connectivity, and solidarity, differing from mere government-to-government relations.

Key Takeaways from Speakers

  • Ambassador Desker noted that by 2030, 50% of the region's population would by then belong to the middle class.
  • Dr. Pangestu touched on the challenges of managing trade liberalization concerning domestic industries, advocating for comprehensive regional strategies that address local economic challenges.
  • Mr. Ben Bland highlighted the need for ASEAN to be aware of the pressures resulting from a fragmented geopolitical order while maintaining an inclusive atmosphere for negotiations.

Conclusion

This roundtable discussion serves as a vital platform for addressing the complexities facing ASEAN today, particularly as the region structures its future within an increasingly multipolar world.

Introduction

  • ASEAN
  • Geopolitics
  • Demographics
  • Digital Economy
  • Sustainability
  • Trade
  • Investment
  • Multilateralism
  • Community Identity

Introduction

Q1: What are the main changes impacting ASEAN today?
A1: Major changes impacting ASEAN include the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions like the US-China trade war, and the shifting demographics within the region.

Q2: What challenges does ASEAN face regarding its aging population?
A2: The aging population creates challenges related to healthcare, social security, and the need for labor policy adjustments in member states.

Q3: How is digitalization expected to affect ASEAN's economy?
A3: ASEAN's digital economy is projected to exceed a trillion dollars by 2030, largely driven by advancements in e-commerce and fintech.

Q4: What role does ASEAN play in global trade?
A4: ASEAN accounts for a significant percentage of global exports and remains an attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI).

Q5: Why is the sense of community important for ASEAN?
A5: A sense of community fosters cooperation, solidarity, and understanding among member states, essential for navigating complex challenges collectively.

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