Ryan Girdusky Digs Into the Post-Debate Data

Introduction

Our friend Ryan Girdusky joins us once again. He is the author of the National Populist newsletter on Substack and the founder of the 1776 Project PAC. Girdusky analyzes the post-debate data and polling numbers, shedding light on the current political landscape and what it could mean for the upcoming elections.

Post-Debate Numbers

Starting with the debate results, the CNN instant poll showed Kamala Harris winning with 63% of viewers supporting her, while only 37% said Donald Trump won. This outcome aligns with the overall trend of Trump's debate performances; historically, he has not fared well in debates according to these instant polls. Notably, in previous elections, Trump secured 27% against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 28% against Joe Biden in 2020.

When analyzing current

polling data, Girdusky notes that various aggregators show Trump trailing Harris by 1 to 3 points nationally. Polls from The New York Times, Marquette, and Pew Research reflect a tightly contested national race, indicating that both candidates are nearly tied in important swing states.

Key States that Will Determine the Election

Girdusky argues that three key states—Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina—will be crucial in deciding the election. He points out that if one candidate can secure victories in all three, they are unlikely to lose nationally. Presently, Georgia and North Carolina show a slight advantage for Trump, while Pennsylvania is essentially a toss-up.

Girdusky highlights that polling might be skewed due to the oversampling of specific demographics, particularly Democrats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, which could underrepresent Republican voter sentiments in these areas. Likewise, he believes that Trump could have a hidden advantage among non-college-educated white voters, crucial for success in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

The Importance of Voter Turnout

The potential for a tight election is evident, but Girdusky emphasizes that the outcome will heavily depend on voter turnout among specific demographics. While younger voters and newly naturalized citizens may lean toward Kamala Harris, the white working-class vote—particularly those without a college degree—will be decisive.

Trump’s campaign, according to Girdusky, would benefit from focusing on this demographic while also exposing Harris's past radical positions and rapid ideological shifts. He cites Kamala Harris's evolution on various issues, suggesting that convincing voters of her inconsistency could work to Trump's advantage.

Celebrity Endorsements: A Mixed Bag

As the discussion transitions to the role of celebrity endorsements in the election, Girdusky reveals skepticism regarding their effectiveness. He mentions Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris post-debate, but questions whether it can sway any significant number of voters. Drawing on past experiences, he suggests that celebrity power may not translate effectively into political support, as evidenced during the 2016 election cycle.

In short, Girdusky emphasizes that, despite Harris’s appeal to younger voters through celebrity endorsements, the fundamental issues that sway voters, particularly white working-class demographics, will be pivotal to either candidate's success.

Conclusion

As we approach the election, Girdusky conveys the importance of understanding the voting landscapes in key states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Each candidate must adjust their strategies, focusing on demographics that could turn the tide in their favor while being mindful of potential polling inaccuracies.

Keyword

• Ryan Girdusky
• Post-Debate Analysis
• Kamala Harris
• Donald Trump
• Swing States
• Voter Turnout
• Celebrity Endorsements
• Poll Results
• Electoral College

FAQ

Q1: Who won the recent debate according to the CNN instant poll?
A1: Kamala Harris was reported to have won with 63% of viewer support, while Donald Trump received 37%.

Q2: Which three states are deemed most critical to winning the election?
A2: Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina are central in determining the election results.

Q3: How have polling numbers fluctuated in recent surveys?
A3: Trump is trailing Harris by 1 to 3 points according to several polling aggregators.

Q4: What demographic does Ryan Girdusky believe will be pivotal for Trump?
A4: Girdusky argues that non-college-educated white voters are crucial for Trump's success.

Q5: What is Girdusky's view on celebrity endorsements in politics?
A5: He is skeptical about their impact, citing past examples where celebrity influence did not translate to significant voter support.